You are correct that a safe later planting will most often thrive over an early planting
that could stress the plants if hit by late cold/wet conditions.
I look at a ten day forecast close to when it is recommended to plant. I pot up at least
close to double I have room for and often put a dozen in early... more about my time
and convenience. Very rare that early planting does better than those having to
wait even three weeks, second week of June.
The variety might matter. Two I can think of in my bakers dozen of favorites are SunGold
and CherokeeChocolate. They don't seem to mind a late chill. And always the first two
that give fruit. A snacker and a slicer. Rarely do earlies perish. Just sit and wait out the
cold.
Best conditions in my short season are a forecast of at least 70º with overcast and maybe
a few showers predicted but no major storms in that 10 day advanced.
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