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Old December 5, 2019   #55
Nan_PA_6b's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 3,184

Originally Posted by bower View Post
Sorry to hear it didn't work out. Sounds like you didn't get a full Beta orange this time. I've had that happen, where 5 isn't enough to get the "one in four". It's a bit of a lottery really. You may grow two plants another year and get lucky!
I've done the math (yay, math!) on this. For something that happens 50% of the time, or 1 out of 2, you should grow 6 of them to be (virtually) assured of getting what you want. For something that happens 25% of the time, or 1 in 4, you might need to grow 16 to be virtually assured of getting what you want.

I was breeding lovebirds in a past life, and the 15th baby from one pair turned up blue, when all the rest had been green. I went back to the source of my breeding pair, and asked if they had any recessive blue genes; turns out they did. (Meaning, the blue babies should occur on average 25% of the time) He marveled that I had gotten no blues until the 15th baby, but the statistics support it.
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